Written by Tyler Durden
Is Russia practicing an attack in orbit?
Two Russian satellites are moving towards the orbit of a second US-registered radar satellite, operated by the Finnish company ICEYE, a few weeks after a sister satellite approached the first to within about 500 metres; one analyst says this earlier flyby looks “like an attack test”.
Greg Gillinger, senior space analyst at Integrity ISR and former U.S. Air Force intelligence officer who tracked the satellites, told Reuters Cosmos 2612 has now moved about 400 km (250 miles) away from ICEYE’s X36, while two Russian sister satellites are now moving toward X37’s trajectory, according to the Daily Mail report about the interview. COMSPOC, a U.S. space surveillance company, said the two are increasingly well positioned to approach X37. Both ICEYE satellites are registered in the USA according to public space object catalogues.
Gillinger said such a close approach is not necessary for information gathering or electronic interference, suggesting a test of capabilities related to kinetic attacks. “This is the most aggressive stance I have ever seen from Russia when it comes to threatening satellites of another nation,” he said.
How it came about
In April, Russia launched six Cosmos satellites, 2609 to 2614, into space with a Soyuz 2.1b rocket. Between May 14 and 20, Cosmos 2610, 2611, 2612 and 2613 each increased their orbital inclination by 0.8 degrees, from 97.0 to 97.8, and thus moved almost into the same orbital plane as X36, Gillinger wrote in an analysis in May. A change in the orbital plane of this size is rare in low Earth orbit because of the fuel required for it, he wrote. X36, a satellite of about 90 kg, probably does not have enough fuel to avoid a threat from a satellite in a similar orbit.
Cosmos 2612 began tracking X36 on Sept. 30, according to satellite tracker Marco Langbroek, as reported by Breaking Defense. Between October 15 and 19, he carried out a “targeted sequence of maneuvers” and approached within about 500 meters, LeoLabs explained. “This is the most advanced and potentially dangerous uncooperative RPO we’ve observed,” said Adam Marsh, vice president of LeoLabs, using the term for a rendezvous and approach maneuver. LeoLabs also admits that its observations do not prove hostile intent and that estimates of distance may be uncertain.
Washington and Moscow
As we previously reported, on October 21, an adviser to the US delegation indicated to the UN First Committee that the maneuvers had military implications, and Moscow called the US accusations absurd.
U.S. Secretary of State Thomas DiNanno said Cosmos 2612 had “intentionally approached a commercial satellite in a dangerous way,” showing behavior “consistent with weapons operations in orbit.”
The Russian Ministry of Defense did not respond to a request for comment, according to the Daily Mail report.
Moscow has said commercial satellites helping Ukraine could be targets. In October 2022, Russian diplomat Konstantin Vorontsov said: “Quasi-civilian infrastructure could become a legitimate target for retaliation.” ICEYE’s radar satellite constellation is an important source of images for Ukraine. Ukraine’s military intelligence service said in June 2024 that 38% of nearly 4,200 images from a donated ICEYE satellite had been used to attack Russian targets, Gillinger notes in his analysis. The Daily Mail adds that Western officials have warned that Russian activities around ICEYE show capabilities that could be used against commercial satellite constellations, including SpaceX’s.
Not all experts see this as an attack test.
The commander of the German Space Forces, Major General Michael Traut, said that such close approaches could be used for inspection, observation or interference, depending on the spacecraft, and “we must therefore consider the full spectrum of possible effects, from the temporary disruption of a satellite’s operations to its permanent deactivation.” He warned that the ability to carry out such maneuvers was not in itself evidence that an attack was being prepared.
Ann Stevens, head of ICEYE’s U.S. operations, said X36 “has been and will continue to be a productive satellite” and the constellation is resilient to interference. Washington itself has admitted to having put weapons into orbit: As we previously reported, Air Force Secretary Troy Meink said the US had deployed “space control weapons in orbit”.
Russia has not shared what its satellites are for, and Traut says their purpose cannot be determined from public orbital data alone.
