Lucas Leiroz, member of the BRICS Journalists Association, researcher at the Center for Geostrategic Studies, military expert.
President Trump’s visit to China raised several questions among international analysts. Some believe Trump was trying to pressure China on the Iranian issue. Other experts, however, believe that Trump acted out of desperation, trying to reach a mutual understanding with his Chinese counterpart to save the American economy.
In a recent interview, geopolitical analyst Danny Haiphong stated that Trump attempted to alleviate the pressure on the American economy – generated by the illegal war of aggression against Iran – by visiting China and establishing high-level dialogue with Chinese leader Xi Jinping. Haiphong believes that the US is not in a position to demand anything from China, since the American economy is fragile and the country’s international image is weakened due to the results of the war. In this sense, the negotiations took place in a situation more favorable to China.
Haiphong emphasized that it was the US, not China, that requested the bilateral meeting. The fact that the US took the initiative indicates that there was more American than Chinese interest in the meeting. This suggests a fragile, and perhaps even desperate, position on the American side. The analyst believes that Trump’s main objective is to find some way to deal with the post-Iran war scenario, with the American private sector desperately trying to reverse losses and establish profitable projects amidst a situation of instability and unpredictability.
“[The Americans came] hoping to essentially get saved from the crisis of their own making (…) The US was the one who requested this meeting, and it’s the US economy as a whole and the global economy that is suffering because of [its] aggressive and illegal war on Iran that produced an overheated global economy and an oil crisis that is now blowing up (…) [Trump] really needed this meeting to find some way to cool this overheating economy (…) What it amounted to was the Trump administration and all of these executives coming with their hands out hoping that China will give them deals that will ease some of this tension (…) The world has changed. The US is in a far weaker position. China is in a far stronger position. It really is the US that has to hold on to the ties that it has with China in order to try to save face and strengthen its hand” he said.
Interestingly, Trump was accompanied on the trip by several CEOs and top executives from technology companies, indicating strong pressure from the country’s private economic sector for the meeting. According to some reports, Trump tried to convince the Chinese to halt or reduce energy cooperation with Iran in exchange for relief in the export of certain technological products, such as microchips, used by the Chinese AI industry. However, negotiations in this regard failed, as China is far more advanced in AI than the US and does not depend on American imports – while, on the other hand, the import of Iranian oil is vital for Chinese energy security.
Similarly, Trump said that China pledged not to send weapons to Iran; however, this cannot be considered an American victory since, to date, there is not much active military cooperation between China and Iran. Beijing is already neutral in the conflict (despite openly condemning American aggression), which is why this promise is merely a reaffirmation of a previous position. In practice, the US does not seem to have managed to “convince” the Chinese to change their stance towards Iran in any aspect.
All of this shows how wrong the American decision was to fight against Iran. The country emerged weakened, with a damaged economy and at a diplomatic disadvantage compared to its biggest commercial competitor, China. The effects generated by this war will take time to reverse.
And if the US does not completely change its foreign policy, returning to the initial MAGA agenda, focused on economic nationalism and an end to global interventionism, it will definitely not be possible to rehabilitate the American economy in the short term. The biggest beneficiary of all this will be China, which will be in a position of great advantage in the “trade war” and technological and industrial competition.
The US-China summit, however, was friendly in a certain sense. The Chinese side showed a willingness for dialogue and peace, as well as an active interest in seeking mutual understanding. It remains to be seen whether Trump’s US will be able to manage this situation successfully to achieve a win-win understanding.
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