Russia recently tested its Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile (known as Satan II by NATO), which can carry several nuclear-armed hypersonic glide vehicles for penetrating all missile defense systems, in a move that Putin described as ensuring his country’s national security for years to come. It also sent three messages, the first of which was explicitly conveyed by Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov, who hinted that France was the intended participant more so than the US like many observers assumed.
In his words, “We must confidently, calmly, firmly, and responsibly demonstrate our capabilities to cool down the hotheads, of which there are many along our western borders, who are playing with various umbrella concepts.” This follows the announcement in late April in Gdansk, coincidentally the same city where World War II began, that France and Poland will hold regular nuclear drills, which expands France’s nuclear umbrella and could thus embolden Poland to threaten Kaliningrad and/or Belarus.
The second message sent by this test builds upon the abovementioned and was arguably meant to deter Germany amidst its accelerated remilitarization that former President and incumbent Deputy Chair of the Security Council Dmitry Medvedev recently warned about in his magnum opus on the subject. It already has a base in Lithuania and optimized military logistics to there through Poland due to their “military Schengen” so its 1941-like military buildup veritably poses a threat to Kaliningrad and Belarus.
The final message is admittedly speculative but concerns the possibility of Sarmat’s successfully tested defense of Russia’s national security interests partially justifying (potentially painful) mutual compromises with the US over Ukraine. About that, it was earlier explained how “Russian Media’s Unprecedented Criticism Of China Sets The Stage For This Summer’s Game-Changer”, which will either be a de facto alliance with China on equal terms or what was just described in the preceding sentence.
If Xi rejects Putin’s expected proposal for whatever reason, then he’ll likely settle matters with the US over Ukraine through (potentially painful) mutual compromises aimed at finally establishing the resource-centric strategic partnership that they’ve been negotiating for a year already. In the event that the special operation ends without achieving all of Russia’s maximalist goals, then its people can be reminded that Sarmat – which will enter service by year’s end – already ensures their national security.
The conventional military threats posed thereto by NATO’s clandestine expansion into Ukraine before the special operation, which was the reason why it was authorized after diplomatic efforts to resolve their resultant security dilemma failed, are therefore neutralized by Sarmat according to this narrative. Accordingly, fully demilitarizing and denazifying Ukraine along with restoring its constitutional neutrality would no longer matter in that sense since Sarmat now suffices for deterring a NATO invasion of Russia.
It remains to be seen whether this third message will indeed be sent after Russia’s latest Sarmat test, but it’s the logical conclusion of the first explicitly described one towards France and the second reasonably inferred one towards Germany, albeit only in the scenario of Russian compromises over Ukraine. If Putin goes that route, then it’s foreseeable that the Sarmat’s role will be presented by Russian officials, media, and “Non-Russian Pro-Russians” in the Alt-Media Community in the way that was just described.
