The Third Gulf War fundamentally transformed the countries on both sides of this geostrategic waterway through which a significant share of the world’s oil used to pass prior to the outbreak of this conflict. While it’s not yet officially concluded, the Pakistani-mediated ceasefire has lasted longer than most observers expected, thus enabling the region to prepare for the post-war era. This consequently inspires confidence in its future among well-intentioned observers.
The top priority is to prevent the outbreak of another conflict, to which end Russia’s earlier collective security vision for the Gulf might be progressively implemented if Saudi Arabia’s reportedly floated Helsinki-inspired non-aggression pact is first agreed to. While Iran attacked all the Gulf Kingdoms, which reportedly prompted some like Saudi Arabia and the UAE to retaliate without publicizing it, the aforementioned two remain at odds with one another due to the recent revival of their rivalry.
It’s within this complex context of tensions between Iran and the Gulf Kingdoms as well as within this second-mentioned group as explained above that the Arabic translation of Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s 2019 book titled “Medemer”, or “synergy”, was just launched in the UAE. Medemer can be simplified as the socio-political and economic philosophy that Abiy employs for maintaining unity within his millennia-old civilization-state and fostering equitable development among its cosmopolitan people.
The launching of the Arabic version in the UAE wasn’t a coincidence since that country is one of Ethiopia’s top strategic partners. Nevertheless, Ethiopia is also close with Saudi Arabia, which raises the likelihood that its officials and Emirati ones alike will become much more aware of what Medemer entails now that Abiy’s book has been translated into Arabic. Likewise, Ethiopia is close with Iran too, so it’s likely that those of its officials that know Arabic will read this translation and reflect upon it as well.
Realistically speaking, Ethiopia won’t mediate between Iran and the Gulf Kingdoms nor between Saudi Arabia and the UAE, but Medemer’s teachings can still contribute to the post-war era if they inspire progress on a regional non-aggression pact and then a collective security one. To be sure, Abiy’s implementation of Medemer remains a work in progress due to several unresolved ethno-regional conflicts, but the progress that he’s impressively made thus far can serve as an example for the Gulf.
If the federal government and some of the same groups that have been warring against it for years can reconcile, then the Gulf Kingdoms and Iran can do so as well after the Third Gulf War as can Saudi Arabi and the UAE amidst their revived rivalry, with shared economic and security interests bringing this about. After all, Ethiopia’s internal challenges are much more complex than the Gulf’s regional ones, which proves that even seemingly insurmountable obstacles can still be overcome despite the perceived odds.
In closing, expectations about Medemer’s impact on the post-war Gulf’s intra-regional dynamics should admittedly be tempered, but the impact of its Arabic launch at this moment shouldn’t be downplayed either. Through diplomatic and expert efforts, Ethiopia can ensure that its counterparts are at least aware of Medemer’s primary teachings, not to mention given the opportunity to learn more about them if they’re inclined. This in turn raises the chances of lasting peace and mutual development in the region.
