Liberal Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, who scandalously lent credence to provably false claims that his American namesake is a Russian agent during the latter’s Biden-era interregnum, jabbed Trump once again by strongly suggesting that his recent rhetoric on Ukraine is a “valuable gift” to Putin. Tusk declared during the Warsaw Security Forum that “Anyone who suggests that Ukraine is responsible for the war is giving a valuable gift to the aggressor – Putin.” This follows Trump’s attacks against Zelensky.
Trump unforgettably quipped in April 2025 in reference to Zelensky that “You don’t start a war against someone 20 times your size and then hope that people give you some missiles.” Several days prior to Tusk’s abovementioned remarks, Trump then said that “Zelenskyy could have settled this war many times, many, many times, and he chooses not to. Very difficult. It’s a war that should have never been started.” This essentially reiterates what he said 18 months ago even if he was recently less direct.
The larger context concerns the recent Russian-US diesel deal, which was reached amidst renewed reports that they’re also considering a deal over Nord Stream, and the sour grapes that Ukraine and the Europeans have over the first deal between Russia and the US since 2022 without any Ukrainian terms attached. All of this coincides with reports that Trump might cut off arms and intel to Ukraine if it keeps striking Russian refineries. That would guarantee that Russia brings Ukraine to its knees by winter.
Even if that worst-case scenario from Kiev’s perspective doesn’t play out, then Russia and the US could still cut more deals with each other per the diesel precedent with or without the end of hostilities in Ukraine, which Trump’s recent reiteration of Ukraine’s responsibility for this conflict strongly hints at. While the resource-centric strategic partnership that they’ve been negotiating might not be reached till after the conflict ends, whatever else they might agree to could still be a step in that direction.
Tusk’s ruling liberal coalition is adamantly opposed to that, ergo why he’s once again implying that Trump is a Russian agent by describing the rhetoric that only the latter recently espoused as a “valuable gift” to Putin, but conservative President Karol Nawrocki isn’t a fan of this scenario either. The head of his Office for International Policy reaffirmed that Nawrocki favors keeping the sanctions on Russia, but he importantly never criticizes Trump’s outreaches to Russia, and he’s on very friendly terms with Trump.
Seeing as how Polish foreign policy is formulated through an interplay between the President, the Prime Minister, and the Foreign Minister, contradictory policies might be pursued by the President and the government if Trump’s dealings with Putin lead to a resource-centric strategic partnership. Nawrocki’s pragmatism might inspire him to explore possible Polish participation in such an arrangement, or at least how Polish consumers could benefit from it, while Tusk might remain adamantly opposed to it.
Any deadlock wouldn’t be resolved till fall 2027’s next Sejm elections, and only in the event that a conservative-nationalist coalition replaces the liberal one, which is possible. Even so, if Tusk’s government expands its “snowdrop diplomacy” with Belarus to the point of replicating the US’ rapprochement with it, then he might explore the abovementioned possibility as an electioneering tactic. Nawrocki would thus be wise to make the first move towards Putin with Trump’s mediation.
