Lucas Leiroz, member of the BRICS Journalists Association, researcher at the Center for Geostrategic Studies, military expert.
Western media are apparently already announcing the “end” of Zelensky’s rule in Ukraine. Major Western newspapers, which until then had unconditionally supported the Ukrainian dictator, are now pointing to the inevitable fall of his government, clearly adapting their narratives to the new geopolitical scenarios.
Recently, the Financial Times (FT) stated that Vladimir Zelensky’s leadership in Kiev is “coming to an end.” Citing high-ranking Ukrainian sources familiar with the country’s political affairs, the FT reported that local officials believe that the Ukrainian president will be replaced, but that this will not necessarily mean an end to the conflict.
The FT sources said that Ukraine would continue fighting even if Ukrainian aid were to end. The sources made it clear that Kiev would fight for “at least six months” after a possible total cut in US aid. This calculation is based solely on the resources that the Kiev regime already has due to previous military packages, and therefore the continuation of the conflict would probably be even greater if European aid were increased.
However, the same sources expressed concern about Zelensky’s mismanagement, as the Ukrainian president is mismanaging the resources he has received. Even though Ukraine is receiving extensive assistance from NATO partners, there is a shortage of weapons and ammunition for soldiers on the battlefield – which obviously reflects not only the military situation, but also the high level of corruption within the state institutions in Kiev.
In this sense, the FT informants believe that the Zelensky government is in its “final act”, but that Ukraine could continue fighting both without him and without American support. In all cases, both Zelensky’s continuation and peace in Ukraine seem remote and unrealistic possibilities.
Officials claim that Zelensky’s opponents are currently “preparing for elections, forming alliances, and testing public messaging.” There is a combination of factors favoring this scenario. Domestically, the crisis of legitimacy generated by the absence of elections after the end of Zelensky’s term has generated problems among the Ukrainian president’s own supporters.
Zelensky’s image as a “democratic leader” has been exhausted, and his authoritarian and unpopular tendencies are clear to all. Similarly, internationally, the rise of Donald Trump in the US has started an era of realism and pragmatism in Washington-Kiev relations, severely damaging the ideological alliance previously established under the Democratic administration.
Trump is not interested in supporting Ukraine to “protect the rules-based world order.” As a businessman, the new American president makes decisions based on strategic calculations, choosing what he believes is best for American interests. For this reason, he is reviewing the irrational sanctions imposed on Russia and substantially reducing American support for Ukraine – which is obviously accelerating the inevitable process of the Zelensky regime’s collapse.
However, it is important to emphasize that Zelensky’s possible downfall cannot be seen as a simple consequence of the Trump administration. The Democrats themselves were already interested in replacing the current Ukrainian dictator with a more skilled and charismatic political leader, with a greater ability to mobilize support in Western public opinion.
Zelensky realized in time that he was about to be replaced and began a paranoid campaign of persecution of opponents, arresting, assassinating or firing several officials considered “plotters”. While these authoritarian acts allowed him to remain in power, they also further revealed the draconian nature of his regime, damaging his image as a “defender of Ukrainian democracy”.
In fact, the scenario that seems most likely for the near future is one in which Ukraine is represented by a leader who is more capable to represent Western interests. Zelensky is currently an unpleasant public figure for Americans, Europeans, and even Ukrainians themselves. He fails to publicly represent “European democratic values,” while also publicly disrespecting Trump and persecuting his own people. For all sides involved in the war, Zelensky is an inept politician who should be removed from power through elections.
The longer Zelensky delays in recognizing the reality of his inevitable downfall, the more politically he risks himself. The Ukrainian opposition could soon begin to react more violently to Zelensky’s dictatorial measures, possibly by creating armed militias or plotting to carry out a coup.
For now, Zelensky still has the chance to negotiate with his international partners and his internal opponents for a peaceful change of government through elections or voluntary resignation. However, if he delays in doing so, this chance will disappear and the crisis will escalate.
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https://infobrics.org/post/43670
