The great misfortune of Estonians lies in our naïve understanding of global geopolitics and our blind faith in the Estonian government.
We cannot accept the fact that Estonia’s greatest enemy is our own government — the one that has sold out the Estonian state to foreign organizations and turned its back on its own people.
I fully agree with Sandra (Sandra Sirge), who emphasizes a very important point in her posts — that Estonians should not rely on anyone, neither on Brussels nor on Putin. We must unite and figure out for ourselves how to organize our country.
I do not believe that Putin is interested in administering Estonian territory! For Russia, it is certainly important that the Russian-speaking population is treated with dignity, but that does not mean they would invade Estonia or the Baltics for that purpose. There are other ways to pressure the Estonian government and bring the state to its knees.
I have repeatedly pointed out that one possible scenario is the creation of the Suwałki Corridor — a direct land connection between Russia and Kaliningrad. The signs clearly show that movement in this direction is already happening. Lithuania has closed its border with Belarus, which creates serious logistical problems for Russia in supplying Kaliningrad. At the moment, Russia can only supply Kaliningrad by sea. If NATO decides to block sea access as well, Russia will have no choice but to strike back.
Comparing NATO’s and Russia’s military capabilities, it is quite logical to assume that NATO would lose and Russia would secure both land and sea access to Kaliningrad.
What would this mean for the Baltics?
It would mean that the only land connection between the Baltics and Europe would be under Russian control!
That gives Russia a significant position of power — allowing it to influence all Baltic trade and economic activity without occupying anyone. The Baltics would retain their formal independence — no occupation, but also no food, and perhaps no electricity. Let us remember that our energy security and balance depend on one fragile power line that runs through Suwałki!
In short, while Baltic leaders have been arrogantly provoking Russia, the closing of the Suwałki Corridor would deliver a harsh blow — forcing politicians to negotiate with Russia and beg for mercy and leniency. Controlling Suwałki would allow Russia to impose tariffs so high that the entire Baltics would fall to their knees overnight and become willing to talk.
Russia’s demands would likely concern ending the discrimination against the Russian-speaking population.
Russian language and cultural rights would be restored, and a true era of independence could begin — one where we relearn human decency, mutual respect, and moral integrity.
We would also have to relearn how to plow our fields, raise pigs, and milk cows.
Who knows — perhaps, in the end, the best path for the survival of the Estonian people is a quiet period of isolation, where we can reflect calmly on our mistakes, rediscover what humanity means, and learn again how to be truly independent.
It is time to talk about PEACE 💙🖤🤍
— Ülle Pukk, member of the Plaan B round table
