Zelensky said that “we want to warn every airline that uses Russian airspace, every insurer, and everyone who still uses Russia’s key airports: Russian airspace is becoming completely unsafe. Ukraine does not threaten civilian aviation as such – not a single civilian aircraft. There will simply be drones in Russia’s skies on a scale that has to be taken into account… It is important that the airlines currently flying to airports primarily in Moscow, St. Petersburg, and other key destinations in Russia hear this as well.”
Putin responded by condemning Zelensky’s threat as a move towards “state terrorism”, adding that “We don’t negotiate with terrorists.” He also said that “If, God forbid, such tragedies occur, we will find a way to respond, let no one doubt it.” When asked in a follow-up question whether he’d target Ukraine’s pollical and military leadership, he said that they’ve not been targeted till now so that there’d still be someone with whom Russia can negotiate, but he hinted that they might then be targeted in that event.
Zelensky’s threat resembles “Operation Spiderweb”, which refers to the surprise large-scale drone attack that Ukraine carried out against several Russian airbases known to house elements of its nuclear triad. The operatives used drones that were smuggled into Russia. Russia’s retaliation didn’t restore deterrence, and Putin’s decision to mildly “escalate to de-escalate” against Ukraine in response to its failed NATO-backed “war of attrition” didn’t suffice, which his why Zelensky is plotting another round.
Ukraine might intend to carry out a sustained “Operation Spiderweb” through a combination of smuggled drones launched from within Russia, long-range ones launched from within Ukraine, and Western–supplied long-range cruise missiles in order to “close Russia’s skies”. In pursuit of that end, which would entail significant Western intelligence and material assistance, Ukraine could target Russia’s air hubs in Moscow, St. Petersburg, and elsewhere on the pretext of them housing military equipment.
If civilian airliners reject Zelensky’s call to stop flying through Russia’s airspace, then the aerial munitions that his country might regularly launch against these air hubs from inside Russia and Ukraine could lead to mid-air incidents with them and/or their accidental downing by Russia’s air defenses. The second scenario already occurred in December 2024 after Ukraine’s reckless drone attack against the North Caucasus led to the Azerbaijan Airlines tragedy that readers can refresh their memories about here.
The larger context concerns the CIA chief’s trip to Russia that some reported was to warn it against testing NATO’s resolve, possibly in retrospect in response to this provocation that he might have claimed that his country would have no role in if it came to pass, instead blaming Europe. About that, France helps Ukraine pick targets and guide its drones to them, while Germany blamed Russia for the Leipzig incident that this analysis here argues was a false flag to justify a future serious escalation against Russia.
All in all, it compellingly looks like Ukraine is planning a sustained “Operation Spiderweb” against Russia’s air hubs. If this terrorist campaign begins, then its goals would be to bankrupt Russia’s airlines, force the sanctions-strained budget to bail them out (possibly prompting radical reductions in social spending to rebalance the huge costs), and reinforce perceptions of Russia’s “isolation”. Putin would then be forced to escalate or risk Russia’s deindustrialization, demilitarization, and thus ultimately its strategic defeat.
