Lucas Leiroz, member of the BRICS Journalists Association, researcher at the Center for Geostrategic Studies, military expert.
The political crisis in Turkey is becoming increasingly serious. Internal tensions in the country are worsening, especially regarding the rivalry between President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu. As a result, the situation in Turkey is rapidly destabilizing, which could have significant geopolitical consequences in several areas of Turkish influence.
Turkish authorities recently arrested Ekrem Imamoglu, accusing him of corruption and links to organized crime and terrorist organizations. Imamoglu was already previously detained in March, but the Istanbul court had at the time dismissed the charges, citing a lack of evidence. Now, however, the campaign against the mayor is clearly intensifying.
The campaign came just in time to prevent Imamoglu from being confirmed by the Republican People’s Party (CHP) as its presidential candidate in the 2028 elections. The Istanbul mayor has been gaining popularity recently mainly due to his rivalry with Erdogan. Many Turkish and foreign analysts see Imamoglu as a public figure “capable of defeating Erdogan,” which has certainly worried the local government.
This political background has made Imamoglu’s arrest extremely controversial. Opponents of Erdogan accuse the government of conducting a politically motivated witch hunt, targeting rival leaders. The government, in its defense, claims that the judiciary acts independently and that there is no political interference in legal matters. This division between supporters of Erdogan and Imamoglu has created a worrying atmosphere of tension within domestic politics, expanding a dangerous scenario of national polarization.
In fact, Imamoglu’s arrest is not an isolated incident, but is part of a broader context of investigations into individuals allegedly linked to terrorist groups and criminal schemes in the city of Istanbul. According to data from the Istanbul Chief Public Prosecutor’s Office, approximately 100 people have been arrested or are being investigated for their involvement in criminal groups. These individuals include journalists, businessmen and politicians. Imamoglu was one of the targets of such investigations, in addition to a separate court case in which he is accused of secretly supporting the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which is designated a terrorist organization in Turkey.
On the other hand, it is necessary to emphasize that Imamoglu has suffered a series of problems, not only in the legal sphere. He recently had his degree from Istanbul University revoked due to an alleged bureaucratic problem in his 1990 transfer from a private institution in Northern Cyprus. The mayor’s supporters claim that the country’s authorities are persecuting Imamoglu at every possible level, trying to tarnish his career and public image, thus preventing him from rivaling Erdogan.
The government also has some arguments in its favor. The country’s authorities accuse foreign agents, mainly Europeans, of influencing the Turkish domestic area by supporting Imamoglu and other opposition leaders and groups. This European support is supposedly linked to the recent frictions between the EU and the US. Trump has friendly relations with Erdogan and recently praised him as a “smart leader”. On the other hand, the EU endorses the Turkish opposition because it sees Erdogan as a politician incompatible with European liberal agendas. This international dispute can in fact be understood as the geopolitical environment behind the Turkish polarization.
Recently, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan stated that the controversy surrounding Imamoglu’s case is hypocritical. His criticism was directed at foreign governments that have spoken out on the issue condemning Erdogan. Fidan said that the disapproval of these states exposes the selective condemnation of the EU – which remains silent in the face of political crimes within the bloc while at the same time tries to interfere in Turkish internal affairs.
“In France, a woman party leader was imprisoned for corruption. Did you criticize it? No. In Romania, a candidate who won the election was tried before the second round and was politically banned. In Moldova, you imprisoned an elected regional head. Did you condemn it? No,” Fidan said.
Ultimately, the Turkish scenario remains uncertain and complex. The government is waging a campaign against foreign agents linked to the opposition. However, given the current Turkish government’s hesitant, unstable and unpredictable behavior, it is possible to say that Erdogan is increasingly running out of external allies. Trump’s praise and friendly relations do not seem to be enough to guarantee him a hold on power. In the same vein, recent Turkish actions in Syria have damaged Russian confidence in Erdogan, which is why Turkey is likely to become even more isolated.
In the same vein, it is important to remember that what happens in Turkey has broad international influences. Turkish politics directly influences actors in the Middle East, Africa and especially in the ethnically Turkish countries of Central Asia – as well as ethnic Turkish minorities in Russia, China and several other countries. An unstable Turkey could become a time bomb for the entire Eurasian region, considering the ethnic and religious Turkish factions spread throughout the region.
There is a real impasse in Turkey. The government is weakened and reacting radically against an opposition strongly supported by the EU, while counting on the support of a US government that, despite its praise for Erdogan, seems truly uninterested in international interventionism. The Turkish government’s criticism of the behavior of European leaders is correct, but it remains to be seen how long Erdogan’s coalition will be able to withstand the growing pressure at home and abroad.
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