The turbulence in Russian-Pakistani ties sparked by their polar opposite views on Taliban-led Afghanistan and particularly the scenario of Russia arming the Taliban against ISIS-K, which is curiously proceeding in parallel with friendly gestures on each other’s part, raises concern about their future. So long as Pakistan doesn’t arm Ukraine on the false pretext of responding to Russia arming the Taliban against ISIS-K, then their ties will remain cordial, and they could even strengthen according to the following roadmap.
People-to-people ties should be the priority since trade ties can’t scale without overland connectivity across Afghanistan and/or Iran, which is unviable due to the Afghan-Pakistani War and the Third Gulf War, while the US exerts de facto veto power over major energy and infrastructure deals. Accordingly, the admission of more Pakistani students to Russian universities should be explored as should the export of Pakistani contract laborers to Russia, which the Russian Interior Minister’s visit could facilitate.
Building upon the above, some level of technological cooperation is also possible, such as Russian-educated Pakistani computer engineers working remotely for Russian firms after returning home and being remunerated at a high rate by Pakistani standards but still a low one by Russia’s. The goal is for people-to-people ties to build bridges between their nations instead of being one-off academic programs or labor contracts. This can lay the basis for scaling trade ties if overland connectivity ever opens up.
The next sphere to focus on is the security one, not only in terms of vetting the abovementioned Pakistanis who’ll travel to Russia to study and work, but also on counter-terrorism. In particular, their annual joint drills should continue together with expanded intelligence-sharing, the latter of which could realistically take the form of Russia requesting that Pakistan investigate suspected ISIS-K camps per tip-offs from the Taliban. Such a mechanism could help de-escalate Afghan-Pakistani tensions if successful.
Finally, Russia and Pakistan can continue cooperating in the international political realm on issues of shared interest at the UN and other multilateral fora, which is mutually beneficial. Their disagreements over Taliban-run Afghanistan therefore don’t have to worsen their ties as long as Pakistan doesn’t arm Ukraine on this pretext. If Russia and the US make tangible progress on their resource-centric strategic partnership, which readers can learn more about here, then this could benefit Russian-Pakistani ties.
Trilateral Russian-US-Pakistani energy and infrastructure deals would then be possible for helping Pakistan further reduce its disproportionate dependence on China in a friendly, gentle, and non-hostile way that doesn’t spook the People’s Republic like major US-Pakistani deals in these industries would. The US would veto Russian-Pakistani ones, and Pakistan isn’t comfortable with US-Pakistani ones since China might read the writing on the wall and pull the plug on CPEC, ergo this possible trilateral compromise.
Looking forward, Russian-Pakistani relations still have some potential irrespective of their disagreements over Taliban-run Afghanistan, but no breakthrough is expected unless the US authorizes it. Absent a grand Russian-US deal, such as the one that they’re negotiating over a resource-centric strategic partnership, then Russian-Pakistani relations will remain far below their full potential. For the time being, both sides should stay the course, and it’s imperative that Pakistan doesn’t arm Ukraine.
