It was assessed in May after the Russian Ambassador’s interview with TASS that “Finland Is On Track To Become One Of Russia’s Most Intractable Foes” due to its new role in NATO’s military surveillance operations against Russia, its rapid militarization, and its deal to let the US deploy to up to 15 bases. Finland has since changed its national legislation to allow for the hosting of nuclear weapons, thus reinforcing Russia’s growing threat perception of Finland, which it never had till Finland joined NATO.
The same perception applies to Sweden, which also decided to join the bloc after the large-scale phase of the Ukrainian Conflict began, and it’s similarly reinforced by the announcement in late August that Sweden will deploy warplanes and warships later this fall to help Finland patrol its border with Russia. For background, Finland was under Swedish control for over 650 years before falling under Russian control in the early 19th century, so what’s poised to happen is essentially a return of history of sorts.
According to the announcement, “Swedish units may be placed under Finnish command if necessary”, but the salience is that Sweden and Russia will soon face off against each other along the Finnish frontier. This was predictable in retrospect since a Viking Bloc is forming among the Northern European nations. Although Norway envisaged leading it due to its much longer membership in NATO, Sweden has a larger population, stronger economic fundamentals, and used to be a Great Power.
It also importantly borders a broad swath of the Baltic Sea that NATO wants to turn into its own so-called “lake” so it naturally follows that Sweden would step up its military activities in the broader region. In terms of the bigger picture, the increasingly merged Arctic-Baltic front that Sweden will functionally lead under the US’ supervision and with the backing of Russia’s traditional British rival forms the northwestern front of the new “cordon sanitaire” that Trump 2.0 has assembled around Russia.
Just south of Sweden is Poland, which is competing with German–backed Ukraine to lead its own bloc in Central & Eastern Europe, and both European containment fronts will inevitably merge. Whether the outcome is a German-dominated militarized EU with Ukraine replacing Poland’s role as the leader of NATO’s Eastern Flank (despite remaining formally outside the bloc) or a Polish-led Intermarium, one thing is certain, and it’s that Russia’s historical European Great Power rivals are teaming up against it.
The Brits, French, and Germans appeared on Russia’s doorstep through their associated regional military deployments since 2022, Poland now commands European NATO’s largest army, and Sweden will soon help patrol Finland’s border with Russia. Poland and Sweden are also working more closely together in the Baltic through joint drills as well as Sweden’s construction of three diesel-electric submarines for Poland. The combined European threat to Russia is therefore becoming increasingly formidable.
Looking forward, Russia should conceptualize this challenge as a US-backed European one while nevertheless recognizing the regional blocs therein, particularly the Viking Bloc that Sweden is poised to lead upon its partial military patronage of Finland later this fall. Russia almost certainly never expected before the special operation that it would once again face off with Sweden along the Finnish frontier, but that’s precisely what’s about to happen, thus reviving their historical rivalry from several centuries ago.
