The Telegraph amplified a report from Polish media outlet Onet last week regarding alleged American warnings that Russia is planning some provocations against Poland. According to their sources, this could take several forms, including but not limited to a drone attack against critical infrastructure, simulated airstrikes that force Poland to activate its air defense systems, and/or an accidental border incursion by Russian and/or Belarusian troops blamed on a GPS failure. The goal would be to reduce aid to Ukraine.
The larger context, which is conspicuously omitted from both reports, concerns the spiraling Polish-Ukrainian dispute after Zelensky glorified the Volhynia Genocide’s OUN-UPA culprits at the state level. Voices have since arisen in Poland calling for an end to their own country’s aid to Ukraine and for it to also stop facilitating other country’s aid to it too. Moreover, many Poles now view Ukrainians negatively after they justified glorifying the OUN-UPA, which ruined people-to-people ties perhaps for a generation.
Under such circumstances, it would be absolutely counterproductive for Russia to do anything whatsoever at all that could restore Polish society’s support for Ukraine and sympathy with its people, which is why it likely isn’t planning any provocations against Poland. The most that it’s therefore expected to do is amplify all aspects of this dispute within its “global media ecosystem”, thus containing its response to the information warfare domain, not expanding it to include any kinetic forms.
Carrying out any of the reported provocations would also entail the risk of an uncontrollable escalation spiral, something that typically cautious Putin has consistently sought to avoid over the past four and a half years, ergo one of the reasons why he remains reluctant to escalate against Ukraine. Observers should also know that Poland now commands NATO’s third-largest military, which is the largest in European NATO and is yet another reason why Russia doesn’t want to risk a conflict with Poland.
On the off chance that some Russian missiles accidentally cross into Poland due to electronic jamming, then Polish President Karol Nawrocki is expected to react calmly instead of be manipulated by the deep state into war with Russia like they tried to do last September when this first occurred as explained here. It’s possible that these same deep state forces and their American allies are responsible for this latest report about Russian provocations against Poland in order to breathe new life into their failed plot.
After all, it’s entirely within the realm of possibility that future Russian strikes against military targets in Western Ukraine go off course once again due to electronic jamming, after which these deep state forces could point to the US’ earlier warnings and the latest report to lie that it was a deliberate provocation. The other scenarios of a simulated strike and accidental border crossings are respectively unlikely in any case due to Putin’s previously mentioned escalation fears and Poland’s newly robust border defenses.
For these reasons, the latest report can be considered an information warfare provocation by the Polish and American members of the deep state, not an accurate reflection of Russian intent. Far from wanting an escalation of tensions with Poland, Russia wants a normalization of their ties, but that’s not possible while the Ukrainian Conflict rages, and Warsaw doesn’t seem interested anyhow. Russia is thus expected to keep the peace Poland, not risk war with it, and Nawrocki doesn’t want war with Russia either.
