Trump and Putin spoke for the first time this year on Monday in a conversation that touched upon the Third Gulf War, the content of which Putin’s senior aide Yury Ushakov described as “very substantive” and “useful”, among other subjects such as the global energy market, Ukraine, and Venezuela. Earlier that day, Putin held a meeting about the global energy market in which he repeated last week’s proposal to cut off exports to the EU before the EU’s deadline on cutting off Russian imports, but with a catch.
In his words, “if European companies, European buyers suddenly decide to reorient themselves and provide us with long-term, sustainable cooperation devoid of political considerations, free from political considerations – we can accommodate them, we have never turned them down”. Russia’s export reorientation towards the Asian market, already a work in progress over these past four years, would thus only remain partial as long as the EU rescinds its sanctions like Putin implied that he wants.
As was argued here over the weekend, that might not be enough since the EU now needs Russian resources more than Russia needs their business, so he might also require that they coerce Zelensky into some of his demands for peace. Trump might be on board considering that he declared shortly after his call with Putin that “we have sanctions on some countries. We’re going to take those sanctions off until this straightens out. Then, who knows, maybe we won’t have to put them on”.
He also revealed that Putin “wants to be helpful” on ending the Third Gulf War and didn’t rule out talking with Iran despite recently demanding its “unconditional surrender”. This came amidst a report that some of his advisors now “Urge Him to Find Iran Exit Ramp” as oil prices surge and most voters remain opposed to the war. Putin also described in detail during his earlier-mentioned meeting how “the entire international economic relations system” is poised for disruption if the war doesn’t soon end.
Of the US’ stated goals at the onset of the Third Gulf War, only demilitarization has been achieved, and only to a large degree and not entirely. Regime change hasn’t happened since the Islamic Republic’s permanent military, intelligence, and administrative (“deep state”) pillars remain intact, though of course heavily damaged, and Iran still possesses its highly enriched uranium. About that, the US is reportedly considering capturing it, but the operation would be huge and could end up very costly in many ways.
It’s here where Putin could bail out Trump before the Third Gulf War becomes an imbroglio. In exchange for Trump removing the US’ sanctions on Russian energy, ordering the EU to follow and resume imports at scale, and them jointly coercing Zelensky into some of Putin’s demands for peace, Putin can have Russia take Iran’s highly enriched uranium with its assent in exchange for a cessation of hostilities that would avert Iran’s full destruction. If Israel rejects peace, then the US can just let it fight on its own.
Both major conflicts could therefore soon end in a way that enables “the entire international economic relations system” to recover by the midterms upon returning Russian and Gulf energy to the global market through this arrangement. Trump could also resume reliance on diplomatic means for obtaining control over a much weaker Iran’s enormous resources to later leverage against China as was argued here to be his unstated war goal. He should therefore seriously consider Putin’s speculative peace plan.
