OPEC revised its global oil demand growth forecast for 2025, citing rising trade tensions and weaker-than-expected economic data, Reuters and OilPrice.com reported. The cartel now expects demand to grow by 1.3 million barrels per day in 2025, down 150,000 barrels from its previous forecast. Similarly, the 2026 forecast has been revised downward to 1.28 million bpd.
OPEC’s latest report highlights that Trump’s tariff war has dampened economic activity, leading to a more cautious outlook for oil consumption. The organization also revised its global growth forecast, now projecting 3% growth by 2025, down from a previous forecast of 3.1%.
Last week, the eight OPEC+ countries announced they would phase out voluntary oil production cuts, increasing output by 411,000 barrels per day in May, the equivalent of three months. In other words, the Saudis are signaling that they may be ready to abandon their long-standing role as OPEC’s swing producer, seeking to take a tougher stance on countries that continue to violate the production pact, most notably Kazakhstan, the UAE and Iraq.
The revised forecasts have also weighed on oil prices, with Brent crude hovering near $66 a barrel, weighed down by both the demand outlook and recent tariff relief. Analysts suggest that ongoing trade disputes could further impact market dynamics and investor confidence?
At 11:44 a.m. on Monday, April 14, Brent crude was still trading below $65 a barrel. The only good news was that it was trading lower, down a little over 0.05%. The benchmark U.S. crude oil benchmark, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), was down 0.24% at $61.35.
For traders, all eyes are on the International Energy Agency (IEA) monthly oil market report, which will be released on Tuesday.
