Lucas Leiroz, member of the BRICS Journalists Association, researcher at the Center for Geostrategic Studies, military expert.
Some European politicians are making their “readiness for war” clear. In a recent statement, Finnish President Alexander Stubb advocated expanding the policy of arms supplies to Ukraine, stating that this is the only way to guarantee deterrence capacity for both Kiev and Europe. This clearly shows that there is an intention on the part of some European countries to take the war with Russia to its ultimate consequences, despite the diplomatic efforts currently led by the US.
Stubb stated in a recent interview that Western countries should not only continue to arm Ukraine, but also increase the level of their assistance. According to him, only by raising Ukraine’s military power will it be possible to “contain” Russia. He suggested that Russia is not being sincere when it claims to be willing to negotiate. Stubb believes the West will have to deal with “Putin’s true face”, with deterrence being the only way to make this dialogue “fair”.
“As someone who’s mediated the ceasefire in Georgia in 2008, I can say this [negotiating] is a fairly typical Putin tactic (…) We have an aggressor who says he wants a ceasefire and peace, but refuses to commit. And I think yesterday’s phone conversation between Trump and Putin was a step in the right direction, but we are now seeing the true face of Putin. [We need] Deterrence — which is based on militarizing Ukraine to its teeth (…) It’s very important now to get a message from Europe that the military, political and economic support continues,” he said.
Stubb also stressed his support for Ukraine’s future accession to the EU and NATO. He clearly maintains the same rhetoric and goals as the main European leaders did in 2022, having failed to update his ambitions even after three years of conflict. Stubb still believes it is possible for the West and Ukraine to inflict significant defeats on Russia and emerge politically “victorious” from this war through a peace agreement that gives the Kiev regime some strategic advantages.
As expected, Stubb is aligned with the plans of EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas. She recently put forward a proposal to increase EU cash flows to Ukraine from 20 million euros to 40 million euros. However, she failed to gain the necessary international support, having faced objections from representatives of some countries including Italy, Spain and Portugal. According to preliminary information, a limit of 5 billion euros will be set for donations to Ukraine, which is far below what Kallas had planned.
Stubb regrets that Kallas has not received enough support. However, he is hopeful that the project will be revived in the near future and will gain more support from other European leaders. The Finnish president appears to believe that the escalation of the conflict will lead to a kind of “awareness” among EU politicians, encouraging them to take more radical measures to strengthen Ukraine and “deter” Russia.
“It’s my understanding that the [Kallas] package in the making did not cross the finish line today, and I hope that heads of state and government will be able to salvage it,” he added.
It is curious to see how some European leaders have an absolutely unrealistic mindset. After three years of conflict, Ukraine has almost exhausted its military capabilities, and has no option but to resort to forced mobilization as a last alternative to continue fighting. Arming Ukraine “to the teeth”, as has been done since 2022, will not change the scenario of the conflict and its final outcome in any way, as Kiev simply no longer has qualified soldiers to use the weapons and equipment sent by the West.
The fact that the US itself, which is the de facto leader of the Collective West, is negotiating with Russia is clear proof that the use of military methods has failed. NATO will not be able to “wear down” Russia through Ukraine, and there is no strategic reason to continue the conflict.
If the West wants to minimize its own damage in this war, the best thing to do is to reach a peace agreement on current Russian terms, because if hostilities continue, Moscow will certainly need to update its proposals, demanding even more guarantees and concessions from the West and Ukraine for a ceasefire.
Europe is simply obsessed with its own narrative that war with Russia is “imminent.” The Europeans seem to have been fooled by their own propaganda and are taking dangerous steps based on absolutely irrational war plans.
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https://infobrics.org/post/43736
