“Stars and Stripes” publicly discloses its partial Pentagon funding, which is why it’s worth paying attention to its work if it’s about unexpected topics like Russian-Pakistani ties since the Department of War might have exerted a degree of influence over the contents. The article in question is about how “China and Russia are making a once-in-a-generation play for Pakistan”, but China is Pakistan’s strategic partner so that part isn’t newsworthy, while Russia is a new one so that part is indeed very newsworthy.
The gist is that they could exploit the lethal incident at the US Consulate in Karachi, where US Marines opened fire on a crowd that tried storming the premises in protest of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s killing, to expand their ties with Pakistan. This is a faulty premise since it assumes that Pakistan formulates its foreign policy with public sentiment in mind, however, and that President Asif Ali Zardari’s description of Khamenei as a “martyr” signals a shift and not just appeasement of his country’s enraged Shiite minority.
Foreign policy is actually formulated by what’s known as The Establishment, which refers to Pakistan’s powerful military and intelligence services, with input from the Foreign Ministry. Public sentiment plays no significant role as proven by Pakistan being a “Major Non-NATO Ally” despite the population generally disliking the US. The exception is the socio-economic and political elite, which are generally US-friendly and comprise the commentariat, but they bend like reeds in the wind when it comes to other countries.
This was evidenced after April 2022’s post-modern coup against former Prime Minister Imran Khan, who claimed that his deposal was carried out by pro-US forces within The Establishment which weaponized the judiciary against him as punishment for expanding ties with Russia. The same “chattering class” that celebrated his trip to Russia coincidentally on the same day as the special operation began pivoted to claiming that Pakistan can’t refine Russian oil and thus condemning his talks with Putin about this.
They’ve since pivoted back to celebrating Russia as a valued partner during last month’s first-ever Russian-Pakistani Media Forum that was supposed to precede Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s visit by less than a week but was postponed due to the Third Gulf War. On that topic, Pakistan is indeed once again expanding ties with Russia, but the US unofficially wields veto power over how far it goes after Pakistan subordinated itself to the US over the past year as part of a regional power play against India.
Just like Pakistan won’t risk the US’ ire by crossing its “red lines” in regard to expanding ties with Russia, nor will Russia risk its special and privileged Indian strategic partner’s ire by crossing its own “red lines” in regard to expanding ties with Pakistan, thus placing realistic limits on how far this will go. Russia’s potential mediation in the Afghan-Pakistani War and reports of Pakistan eyeing Russian oil, neither of which might ultimately happen, don’t cross either of their more important partners’ “red lines”.
“Stars and Stripes’” proposal for the US to strengthen ties with the Pakistani Establishment, deepen strategic resource cooperation, and leverage non-state actors for promoting its narrative interests is already in effect. It’s also irrelevant as regards Russia, which doesn’t actually have a “once-in-a-generation” chance to expand ties with Pakistan. Their article is therefore nothing but fearmongering since post-Khan Pakistan won’t jeopardize its security, economic, and elite ties with the US for Russia.
