Former Russian President and incumbent Deputy Chair of the Security Council Dmitry Medvedev replied “We don’t leave our men behind” with a laughing emoji in response to a Pole on X jokingly asking whether liberal Prime Minister Donald Tusk can become Bashar Assad’s roommate in Moscow. That joke was itself shared in response to a post by Medvedev mocking the West’s claims that everything that goes wrong in its part of the world, including Tusk’s attempted judicial coup, is Russia’s fault.
Casual observers brushed off Medvedev’s latest trolling of Tusk, but it actually has some political substance. Under Tusk’s first government, Poland attempted a rapprochement with Russia, which was derailed by the tragic crash of then-President Lech Kaczyński’s plane en route to Smolensk to commemorate the Katyń Massacre. Many other high-level state and military officials were also killed. It’s believed that Tusk was following his mentor Angela Merkel’s lead in strengthening ties with Russia.
Accordingly, it was assessed in January 2024 shortly after the start of his second government that “Tusk’s Return To Power In Poland Might Be Good News For Russia If He Does Germany’s Bidding”, namely because any Russian-German rapprochement would thus be followed by a Russian-Polish one. About that, “The Post-War European Security Architecture Is Beginning To Take Shape”, and one of its features could likely be the resumption of Russian pipeline exports to the EU after the US obtains stakes therein.
The Yamal gas pipeline and the Druzhba oil one both transit through Poland, and so long as his suspected German patron is on board, then Tusk might agree to the resumption of their use. Conservative President Karol Nawrocki would likely oppose this, however, given his dual beliefs that Poland’s restored partial dependence on Russian energy would constitute a national security risk and that the resumption of Russian pipeline exports to Germany could entice them to once again collude against Poland.
Germany’s potential interest in receiving as much cheap and reliable Russian pipeline imports as possible for rejuvenating its declining economy in the event that the US obtains stakes in these projects could be yet another reason why Tusk launched his attempted judicial coup. It was earlier assessed that “Tusk’s Judicial Coup Amounts To An Attempted German Takeover Of Poland By Proxy”, and while it could prepare Europe for war with Russia as warned about here, that worst-case scenario might not transpire.
Instead, the German-dominated European Federation that could follow Poland’s subordination to Berlin through Tusk’s judicial coup might pursue peace with Russia, especially if the US includes “political safeguards” in the post-war European security architecture as suggested in the previously cited analysis. The primary one would be the resumption of Russian pipeline exports to Germany upon the US obtaining stakes therein, which Nawrocki would likely oppose, ergo Tusk’s judicial coup to sideline him.
To be absolutely clear, Russia played no role in his armed seizure of the Constitutional Tribunal, but it would indisputably benefit if the above scenario transpired. After all, Tusk already pioneered one attempted rapprochement with Russia following Germany’s lead, so precedent suggests that he’d pioneer a second one if it makes the first move or signals its approval for the self-interested economic reasons that were detailed. Medvedev’s latest trolling of Tusk therefore has some political substance.
