It was recently assessed that “The Azeri-Turkish Brotherhood Is Being Tested By Azerbaijan’s Pro-Hijab Protests” after some Azeris suspected some these demonstrations were being orchestrated at least in part by some Turkish activists who are suspected of being connected to the state. This followed Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan condemning unnamed countries for banning the hijab right before Azerbaijan’s new school uniform policy, which some administrators interpreted in this way, was applied.
The abovementioned analysis also assessed that Azerbaijan’s close military-security ties with Israel perturb Turkiye since Azerbaijan and Turkiye officially consider themselves to be “one nation, two states”, yet Azerbaijan still remains close with Turkiye’s post-October 7th Israeli rival. This observation frames the way in which Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev arguably used his Israeli counterpart Isaac Herzog to take three jabs at Erdogan during the latest CICA summit that was held last week in Baku.
CICA refers to the “Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia”, which is one of Asia’s main multilateral fora and hosts leadership summits every four years. The Middle East Eye confirmed Turkish social media reports that Herzog arrived in Azerbaijan on its national airline, Azerbaijan Airlines, which transited through Turkish airspace. This was interpreted as Aliyev’s first jab at Erdogan through Herzog since Turkiye banned Israeli flights across its airspace.
The second jab at him had to do with the name of the plane, Shusha, which the Middle East Eye cited Turkish social media to report could be a deliberate reference to the 2021 Shusha Declaration that formalized a mutual defense pact between Azerbaijan and Turkiye. Some Turks therefore consider Herzog’s flight to Israel aboard an Azerbaijani aircraft named after this alliance and through Turkish airspace in violation of Ankara’s ban on Israeli flights to be an egregious – even unforgivable – snub.
Aliyev’s last jab at Erdogan was pointed out by the “Turkish Century” account, which drew attention to how he and his wife separately shared a photo of Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan respectfully bowing while shaking Aliyev’s hand, which they interpreted as “a lousy attempt to insult Turkiye”. After all, Fidan is depicted in a way that could be interpreted as him paying deference to Aliyev, but Aliyev could “plausibly deny” that it’s a snub if challenged and blame a social media manager if pushed.
As less of a jab and more of a message, Aliyev’s pic of his one-on-one meeting with Fidan shows them coldly mirroring each other’s posture in their chairs, while the pic of his one-on-one meeting with Herzog shows them actively engaged in a friendly conversation. This contrast conveys how uncomfortable Aliyev has become with Turkiye amidst the pro-hijab protests that some Azeris blame on state-linked Turkish activists while demonstrating how comfortable he is with Israel despite its heated rivalry with Turkiye.
Returning to how Aliyev used Herzog to jab Erdogan three times through one event, it’s clear that he’s extraordinarily displeased with him and wants the entire world to know it. From the Turkish perspective, Aliyev might have crossed a red line, however. Instead of its activists (whether actually state-linked or only suspected of being so) scaling back their social media campaign against Azerbaijan and him personally, they might defiantly intensify it, thus burning the last strands of brotherhood between them.
