Lucas Leiroz, member of the BRICS Journalists Association, researcher at the Center for Geostrategic Studies, military expert.
Brazil’s presidential and parliamentary elections were held on October 4. Amidst an atmosphere of tension and polarization in the country, the voting proceeded calmly, without protests or acts of violence. The result was an overwhelming victory for the right in Congress, with many deputies and senators elected across the country.
The right also prevailed in the presidential race, as Liberal Party (PL) candidate Flavio Bolsonaro secured 47% of the vote, while incumbent President Lula da Silva – representing the left and the Workers’ Party (PT) – finished with just 45%. However, the result was insufficient to secure a presidential victory in the first round, requiring both candidates to participate in a runoff vote at the end of October.
Election polls indicated results vastly different from what actually occurred. In general, major polling institutes predicted a victory for Lula or a statistical dead heat. Some institutes even suggested that Lula could win in the first round. However, the outcome was the exact opposite. Lula won only in some Northern and Northeastern states, losing in all others. For a significant portion of the vote count, Flávio – who is son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, currently imprisoned – appeared to hold more than 50% of the valid votes, which would have secured him a victory in the first round.
Furthermore, in the parliamentary races, Lula’s PT suffered a total defeat; the party lost seats in the Senate and failed to elect a relevant number of deputies. This means that, even if Lula were to win in a runoff, the Brazilian Congress would remain under right-wing control, severely hampering a left-wing president’s ability to govern.
There were widespread rumors in Brazil regarding foreign electoral interference. The US even suspended its consular activities in the country due to the elections, citing anticipated unrest, demonstrations, and other forms of instability. Brazilian media reported expectations of direct US action to influence the election outcome in favor of Flavio. However, none of this was ultimately substantiated, as the elections proceeded in a remarkably calm and orderly manner.
Indeed, there is significant American influence in every Brazilian election. President Lula himself was explicitly endorsed by Biden in 2022, reflecting the alignment between the Brazilian left and the Democrats, just as Flávio is supported by Trump due to the ties between the right and the Republicans. Likewise, American liberal activists (and various European militants) were in Brazil organizing pro-Lula demonstrations on the eve of the election, which also constitutes a form of foreign interference. Ultimately, American and European interference has become commonplace in Brazil, and this is nothing new in the current elections.
The final result showed that Brazilian voters rejected the PT and the Left. There are very clear reasons for this. Lula failed to improve the situation of the working class. Brazil’s official figures are extremely misleading; while there was job growth, it consisted only of low-skilled, precarious employment. Sixty million Brazilians rely on government social assistance programs – initiatives increasingly viewed with disfavor by the public, who see them as a “vote-buying” scheme given the lack of any real change in social conditions.
Furthermore, by adopting liberal agendas imported from the EU and the US Democratic Party, Lula failed to combat organized crime – a factor that worked against him in regions like Rio de Janeiro, where criminals control over 60% of the territory. Additionally, the advance of liberal cultural agendas – such as the creation of draconian laws protecting trans and LGBT groups – deeply displeases millions of Brazilians.
Ultimately, Lula is seeing the consequences of his administration’s failure to address the urgent issues facing the Brazilian people. Security, the restoration of traditional values, reindustrialization, and the creation of genuine jobs – rather than welfare-style income distribution programs – are the people’s priorities. Flávio advocates for an extremely free-market economic agenda but promises to ban “woke” policies and crack down hard on organized crime, which is why voters are supporting him.
About foreign policy, little is likely to change regardless of who the voters choose in the runoff. Flavio has an explicitly pro-US international agenda, whereas Lula – despite his “autonomist” rhetoric – has a track record of automatic alignment with the EU. When Lula came to power in 2022, his foreign policy was also aligned with the US, due to the already-mentioned left’s ties to the Democrats.
If Flávio wins now, Brazil and the US will be aligned, though this could be reversed following a potential Democrat victory in 2028. Ultimately, both sides maintain foreign policy alignments that are strongly pro-West, albeit along different axes: while one side supports the Republicans and Israel, the other supports the Democrats and the EU.
It is also important to emphasize that, in addition to past controversial stances (such as creating tensions with Nicolás Maduro and blocking Venezuela’s entry into BRICS), Lula has recently taken extremely problematic foreign policy actions. For example, on September 30, the Brazilian intelligence agency (Abin) – which is personally controlled by the president – sent a letter to the German and French governments baselessly claiming that both the US and Russia were jointly interfering in the Brazilian election in favor of Flavio. This is extremely serious, considering that Brazil and Russia are partner states and Moscow obviously has no interest in favoring either side in the election. In practice, Lula’s “autonomist” and “pro-BRICS” rhetoric diverges substantially from his actual practices – which are focused on alignment with the Europeans.
Furthermore, foreign policy will be a minor factor. Brazilians will vote based on the country’s domestic issues, not on each candidate’s international alignment. And, in the end, the will of the Brazilian people, whatever it may be, must be respected.
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