Dramatic developments in the Persian Gulf
In a recent interview from Buddhist Southeast Asia, renowned geopolitical analyst Pepe Escobar and his interlocutor Nema discussed the dramatic developments in the Persian Gulf.
Just days after the collapse of negotiations in Islamabad, US President Donald Trump announced a blockade of Iranian ports and the Strait of Hormuz. Escobar sees this not only as a strategic failure, but also as a childish PR stunt primarily aimed at China – and one that was humiliatingly exposed in the very first hours.
Blockade announcement and political escalation
April 14, 2026 marks another low point in the already chaotic foreign policy of the second Trump administration.
After more than 21 hours of tough negotiations in Islamabad, in which US Vice President JD Vance led the American side, Trump suddenly announced a comprehensive blockade of all Iranian ports and ships.
For Escobar, this announcement is nothing more than an expression of Trump’s “four-year-old psyche”: a childish reflex of a man who believes Iran is blocking the world – even though no one has ever explained to him the complex five-step passage through the Strait of Hormuz.
Military reality contradicts the rhetoric.
Military reality tells a different story.
To enforce a genuine blockade, the US would need a massive armada – ships, destroyers, aircraft carriers, helicopters, speedboats, and drones in enormous numbers. This armada simply does not exist.
The aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln is cruising far out in the Arabian Sea, practically in the eastern Gulf of Oman, hundreds of kilometers from the actual strait.
The second large carrier, the USS George HW Bush, is off the coast of Namibia – because it cannot cross the Red Sea. The reason: The Houthis (Ansarallah) are already waiting there for any American unit.
The US is circumventing Africa to avoid a confrontation. Escobar calls this “absolutely remarkable” and a clear sign of cowardice.
Doubts even from US circles
Even former NATO Admiral James Stavridis, now a CNN expert, has publicly admitted that the US has neither the ships nor the logistics for a real blockade.
The Pentagon machine works slowly; it would take months to assemble a powerful fleet.
Until then, the blockade exists only on paper. Even the US Central Command (CENTCOM) speaks of a selective blockade: only ships traveling directly to or from Iran are supposed to be affected.
Western tankers, ships from the Emirates or South Korea are theoretically allowed to pass.
First practical refutation
That’s exactly what happened on the very first day.
A Chinese tanker – owned by a shipping company from Shanghai, sailing under the Malawian flag – left the port of the United Arab Emirates and crossed the Strait of Hormuz completely unmolested.
The ship openly broadcast its position on all channels so the whole world could watch. Not a single American warship intervened.
For Escobar, this is proof: The blockade is a gigantic PR stunt that no one can seriously enforce.
China as the actual recipient
The situation becomes even more critical when China is included.
Escobar states unequivocally: This so-called “blockade of Iran” is in reality a blockade of China.
Should the US begin to stop, divert or even threaten Chinese tankers, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA Navy) will immediately send a battle group to the region.
Then the US and Chinese navies would be facing each other within sight – in the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea.
Iran takes control of Hormuz
Iran, meanwhile, has taken full control of the Strait of Hormuz.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has already announced that it will no longer pay tolls to third parties.
The new regulations for the strait will be agreed upon jointly with Oman – two bordering states that are already coordinating their efforts. The US will no longer play a role.
Iran also possesses a massive shadow fleet with 160 to 170 million barrels of oil, sufficient to last until mid-July. A blockade would have little economic impact on the Islamic Republic.
Failed negotiations in Islamabad
The negotiations in Islamabad were doomed to failure from the start.
The Iranian delegation, led by Ali Larijani (“Kalibah”), was highly professionally prepared: legal, economic and technical teams were ready, with detailed documentation on every topic.
JD Vance, on the other hand, had to go to the White House several times and even make a phone call to Benjamin Netanyahu.
The Iranians demanded respect and realism; the Americans came with maximalist demands and economic interests.
Tensions in the Gulf
At the same time, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) is collapsing before everyone’s eyes.
The United Arab Emirates are waging an open shadow war against Iran. Saudi Arabia, on the other hand, is maneuvering more cautiously and seeking talks with several partners.
Oman and Qatar remain neutral and are preparing for the new Hormuz order.
Strategic overview
The big strategic picture is clear: it is not primarily about Iran, but about containing China.
The US wants to control the energy routes – first Hormuz, and if necessary the Strait of Malacca.
This has already had noticeable consequences for the global economy, including rising oil prices.
Conclusion
The conclusion of the discussion: The geopolitical power structure is visibly shifting.
While the US struggles with internal and strategic problems, Iran, China and other actors are consolidating their position.
The Strait of Hormuz remains under Iranian influence – and the international community is watching the developments closely.
