It’s no secret that Russia has been prioritizing engagement with the Global South since the start of its special operation four years and the unprecedented Western sanctions that followed, but many assumed that such states outside the US’ orbit would be most receptive to this, not its allies. As it turns out, the Philippines and Russia are on pace to develop a promising partnership, which is despite the Philippines being the US’ mutual defense ally since 1952 and embroiled in a fierce maritime dispute with China.
Many missed it, but Russia agreed in early 2024 to allow India to export their jointly produced BrahMos supersonic missiles to the Philippines, which the US didn’t interfere with even though it could have imposed its 2017 “Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act” (CAATSA) sanctions. It was explained here how Russia and India aim to gently balance China in Southeast Asia, figuring that this will happen anyhow so it’s better for it to be with their arms than the US’, which the US has no problem with.
From the US’ perspective, this well-intentioned policy might sow seeds of distrust between them and China, thus creating a chance to divide-and-rule them. That hasn’t happened, however, in spite of the Philippines strengthening its ties with the US and Japan afterwards. Even if some in China might dislike the idea of the US’ Filipino ally fielding jointly produced BrahMos supersonic missiles, there haven’t been any official complaints, which attests to China’s political maturity. Here are three background briefings:
* 16 June 2023: “The US’ Nascent Trilateral Alliance With Japan & The Philippines Will Integrate Into AUKUS+”
* 9 July 2024: “The Japanese-Philippine Military Logistics Pact Raises The Risk Of War With China”
* 11 September 2024: “Japan & The Philippines Aim To Provoke A New Asian Arms Race At America’s Behest”
Despite the Philippine remaining firmly on America’s side in the Sino-US dimension of the New Cold War, Russia is eager to expand agricultural exports to it as documented by “Russia’s Pivot To Asia”, which is a news aggregator specializing in is namesake subject. Russia’s E-Vesti also published a detailed report last September about how “Russia and the Philippines Begin a Breakthrough in ASEAN”. More recently, Russia delivered 700,000 barrels of crude oil to the Philippines, and it’s considering LNG exports too.
Russia appreciates the Philippines’ interest in its exports precisely because it’s a US ally, which sends a powerful message across the world about Russia’s appeal. Contrary to popular assumptions, Russia doesn’t keep China’s adversaries at arm’s length, which was made clear in early 2024 after reports circulated that Taiwan had become its main supplier of high precision machine tools by that time. Taiwan, the Philippines, and all others actually occupy an important role in Russia’s economic strategy.
In brief, Russia envisages its Eastern Maritime Corridor – its rebranding of the Vladivostok-Chennai Maritime Corridor – to expand trade with all the countries along this route, which will collectively reduce economic dependence on China. In pursuit of this goal, Russia doesn’t discriminate against any of them based on their ties with China, though neither does China discriminate against Western countries based on their ties with Russia. Everything therefore balances itself out and neither has any problem with this.
