Berliner Zeitung reported in detail on Le Monde Diplomatique’s paywalled article late last month citing a source allegedly within Gazprom about how the revival of Nord Stream as a joint Russian-US partnership is “absolutely part of secret negotiations” between them. The gist is that Russian gas could return to the EU via these means but under US control and political influence. This modus vivendi would reduce costs across the board in the EU and thus hypothetically make it a better market for US exports than it is today.
As it stands, “The US Weaponized Russophobic Paranoia & Energy Geopolitics To Capture Control Of Europe”, and American energy companies accordingly stand to profit tremendously from exploiting the EU’s newfound LNG dependence on them to the hilt. That said, the strategic dividends of obtaining control over Russia’s budgetary revenues from gas sales to the EU through ownership of Nord Stream are arguably worth the reduced LNG profits due to the leverage that this would give the US over Russia.
Moreover, Under Secretary of War for Policy Elbridge Colby’s “strategy of denial” calls in part for the US to obtain control over the resources upon which China’s continued growth and rise as a superpower are dependent, and this imperative figures prominently in Trump 2.0’s grand strategy against China. Restoring a degree of Russian gas exports to the EU therefore denies these resources to China, and it’s via these means that “A Rapprochement With Russia Can Help The US Advance Its Goals Vis-à-vis China”.
There’s more to it such as scaling joint energy cooperation to include other deposits and expanding the goodwill generated through this collaboration into the critical minerals industry for the same purpose. The US could consequently achieve three strategic goals: 1) the EU can become a better market for US exports than it is today upon its US-supervised Russian-assisted recovery through the resumption of some low-cost gas exports; 2) these resources are then denied to China; and 3) US companies still profit.
The fears that the Central & Eastern European countries like Poland and the Baltic States had over Nord Stream with regard to Russia and Germany teaming up against them once more would also be dispelled since they’re the US’ most loyal allies in Europe and would thus trust its control over these pipelines. What was described up till this point is arguably what Miami financier Stephen P. Lynch has aimed to achieve ever since it was reported in late 2024 that he’s quietly trying to buy Nord Stream.
All of this makes perfect business and especially strategic sense, but the remaining obstacles are US and EU sanctions, political pressure upon Trump 2.0 by the US’ most fiercely Russophobic European allies, and of course Russia’s willingness to go along with this arrangement, which can’t be taken for granted. Nevertheless, if properly articulated to the right people in the Trump and Putin administrations, it’s indeed possible that something of the sort could be agreed to as part of a Russian-US “New Détente”.
For these reasons, while some might scoff that this is just a political fantasy, it’s actually a realistic scenario that can’t be ruled out. The US’ influence over the EU could be leveraged to surmount resistance to this plan, while Russia’s willingness to compromise and demands to lift all sanctions could combine to ensure its agreement too. Amidst the seemingly inevitable global energy crisis caused by the Third Gulf War, this could help save the EU economy from collapse, but only if decisionmakers act swiftly.
